With relations between Japan and the United States near a historic high, Prime Minister Fumio Kishida will embark on a state visit to Washington next month to further deepen Tokyo’s defense and economic ties with its sole ally.
But with emerging headwinds in both countries, Kishida and U.S. President Joe Biden will have their work cut out for them as they look to maintain the momentum driving change in the alliance.
From strengthening bilateral relations across a number of areas to deepening security ties with like-minded nations and finding new ways to support Ukraine, the April 10 White House summit will be more than just symbolically important.
The state visit will come at a critical time for the alliance, as the two sides continue to align their strategic positions on Russia while trying to manage an increasingly assertive China and belligerent North Korea amid concerns that the military balance of power in Asia may be tilting in Beijing’s favor.
But with both leaders facing challenges — and friction emerging in other areas, including local protests over the resumption of V-22 Osprey flights in Japan and Biden’s opposition to Nippon Steel’s planned acquisition of U.S. Steel — many question how long the momentum can be sustained.
The White House said in a statement that Kishida’s April 8 to 14 visit will “underscore the enduring strength of our alliance partnership, the unwavering U.S. commitment to Japan, and Japan’s increasing global leadership role,” adding that the two sides will discuss efforts to “strengthen our political, security, economic, and people-to-people ties.”
The trip, which will include a state dinner, will also see Kishida address a joint session of the U.S. Congress on April 11, making him the first Japanese prime minister to do so since Shinzo Abe in 2015.
No official details have emerged about the speech, with Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshimasa Hayashi saying only that it will be “extremely significant in further deepening close cooperation” amid concerns that the U.S.-led international order is under threat.
Strengthening the alliance
The speech will be symbolically important for both sides, providing an opportunity to celebrate the alliance, both as an achievement of Kishida’s foreign policy and Biden’s management of the partnership.
However, it is unclear how the prime minister will handle the issue of assistance for Ukraine.
Tokyo has consistently supported Kyiv, sanctioning Russia while providing financial and nonlethal military assistance to Ukraine.
However, the U.S. Congress has become split on Ukraine, delaying the passage of the national budget for months, in part because of ongoing debates over the utility of continued funding.
Amid this climate, it’s unclear if Kishida will push the issue, something the Biden administration would likely appreciate, or sidestep it to avoid angering “American First” Republicans who — like Donald Trump, Biden’s rival in November’s U.S. presidential election — favor ending aid to Ukraine.
A topic Kishida is almost certain to address during the trip is bilateral trade, with reports saying that he will give a speech at the U.S. Chamber of Commerce in Washington on critical and emerging technologies, and visit Japanese companies in the state of North Carolina. The two sides are also expected to announce closer cooperation in the economic security arena, as well as on artificial intelligence and semiconductors under a “global partnership” framework.
Another highlight of the trip will be the two leaders’ first-ever trilateral summit with Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. on April 11. Both Washington and Tokyo are looking to reinforce defense and economic relations with Manila, which has become a critical element in the allies’ plans to deter and counter Beijing. Among other things, the meeting will reportedly pave the way for joint trilateral naval patrols in the South China Sea later this year — a move likely to elicit a strong response from Beijing.
Tokyo has referred to Chinese military activities in the region as posing “the greatest strategic challenge” to ensuring the peace and security of Japan, repeatedly expressing concern about Beijing’s military buildup and what it sees as China’s “attempts to unilaterally change the status quo by force.”
In Washington, Kishida’s main strategic aim will be to try and persuade the U.S., which is currently preoccupied with the conflicts in the Gaza Strip and Ukraine, to prepare “an unwavering response” in the event of an emergency in Taiwan or the Philippines, said Masashi Okuyama, an expert on U.S.-Japan relations and a visiting professor at Tama University.
“Kishida’s goal will be to bring East Asia’s security to the attention of the U.S. administration and Congress, and to once again encourage them to implement a ‘denial strategy’ toward China,” he said.
Tokyo would probably want Washington to prepare for “the next crisis” by “speeding up the production and procurement of munitions and other supplies,” he added.
The growing concerns over China, Russia and North Korea also explain why security and defense issues will feature prominently during the upcoming state visit.
One of the items expected to be on the agenda will be plans to restructure and expand the functions of the U.S. military command in Japan. The goal is to strengthen operational planning and joint exercises in what would be the biggest upgrade to the security alliance in decades.
Biden and Kishida are expected to agree on the move in an effort to strengthen deterrence and prepare for a possible Ukraine-type crisis in East Asia.
The two countries’ top diplomats and defense chiefs are set to meet in Japan as soon as late May to work out details.
The agreement — expected to feature in a joint statement — would give the two sides “the direction they need to move this adjustment forward in time for Japan’s establishment of a new joint operations command next March,” said James Schoff, a U.S.-Japan alliance expert at the Sasakawa Peace Foundation USA.
Schoff pointed out that while the restructuring would not create a combined command – like that between the U.S. and South Korea – it should allow for more seamless information-sharing and collaborative decision-making to make existing chains of command more effective.
Another topic on the agenda will be Japan’s potential cooperation with the U.S., Australia and Britain under the second pillar of the AUKUS security partnership, which is aimed at co-developing advanced military capabilities such as artificial intelligence, undersea drones and hypersonic missile technologies.
Reports have also emerged that the two leaders may discuss ways to strengthen the joint production of defense equipment to provide more munitions to Ukraine, and increase ways for Japan to repair U.S. warships and fighter jets amid concerns over strained American defense-industrial capacity.
Tokyo hedging its bets
Primarily designed to rally domestic and international support for the alliance’s objectives going forward, Kishida’s U.S. trip is also aimed at reducing the potential risks of a return to the White House of former President Trump, who is known for his tough stance on alliances and burden-sharing.
“There are obvious concerns about the sustainability of U.S. engagement in the Indo-Pacific were Trump to be reelected,” said Robert Ward, the Japan chair at the International Institute for Strategic Studies.
“And with ‘Trump whisperer’ extraordinaire Abe no longer on the scene, Tokyo may find it more difficult to navigate bilateral relations,” he said.
The possibility of a Trump electoral win this November has prompted Tokyo to think about hedging, with reports of Japanese officials reaching out behind the scenes to people who may take key positions in any administration.
“The tighter the U.S. presidential race, the more compelled Tokyo will feel to hedge for either outcome,” a former U.S.-Japan alliance manager said on condition of anonymity, pointing to the stark differences between the two candidates.
This is important as the state visit comes at a time when both Biden and Kishida face domestic challenges. Biden is set to face off against Trump in what could be a close race, while Kishida is dealing with low public approval ratings as he tries to manage the fallout from a slush fund scandal in his own party.
On top of that, issues surrounding Nippon Steel’s planned acquisition of U.S. Steel have raised concerns in Japan that U.S. industrial policies and support for domestic labor unions could create investment barriers, Schoff said, adding that this could worsen under Trump.
That said, experts agree that bilateral ties have become so robust in recent years that they should be able to withstand these headwinds. This has particularly been the case under the Kishida administration, which is seen by many as about as favorable a partner the Biden administration could hope for.
Not only has Tokyo shown that it remains in lockstep with Washington’s position on Ukraine, but it has pushed for stronger ties with South Korea and greater multilateral cooperation with like-minded partners.
Tokyo has also taken on a greater international security role, toughened its own defense posture and continued to promote its vision of a “Free and Open Indo-Pacific.”
“Without a doubt, U.S.-Japan ties are at an all-time high,” said the former U.S.-Japan alliance manager. “This may be difficult for some people to see, given the media’s attention on some of the friction points, but if one were to zoom out and look at how far the relationship has come, it is nothing short of incredible,” the person said.
“The breadth and depth of bilateral cooperation continues to expand, while the sense of animosity that may have existed owing to World War II, the postwar Occupation or the trade frictions (of the 1980s) has all but dissipated,” the person said, adding that the two governments have already reached a point where U.S.-Japan cooperation “is not just desired, but expected.”
Source: https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2024/03/31/japan/politics/fumio-kishida-us-state-visit-preview/
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