From friendships to alliances, the Asian nation’s global influence is growing
At first glance, Japan would not be a country that initially comes to mind in a coalition to build a lasting peace in the Middle East, especially in 2024.
Yet Japan enters the Year of the Dragon as perhaps the most intriguing opportunity to link the Indo-Pacific and the Middle East in a way that benefits everyone.
Japan is an Indo-Pacific power, a technology superpower and the third-largest economy in the world. Yet, despite its significant energy relationships with Middle East fossil-fuel exporters and growing technology investments in Israel, Japan has never played a major role participating in or brokering strategic discussions in the region. Yet 2024 could be different as everyone looks for off-ramps from the current conflict in the Middle East and with elections looming in America, Taiwan, Korea and Japan, to name just a few.
For many decades, Japan and the U.S.-Japan alliance have been key components in America’s grand strategy, with clear, sustained benefits for both nations and for the Indo-Pacific. This dynamic, however, began to fundamentally evolve during the Shinzo Abe Administration. Japan stepped into a leadership role for the first time, championing a free and open Indo-Pacific region for trade in the digital age that has continued even more significantly under its Group of Seven Chairmanship in 2023.
The partnership is more than ready for the trend to continue. The world would greatly benefit from Japan playing an even stronger role, extending the fundamental principles behind the alliance into the Middle East, a region that has been connected to the Indo-Pacific on many levels for millennia. Russia and China are increasingly moving to advance their own strategies to extend influence, seeking to promote their values in this region, and they are not the same liberal democratic values that we share.
Japan’s unique assets
As it turns out, Japan has four assets that would greatly contribute to increased stability in the Middle East: history, friendship, alliance and values. Japan is a transformation success story, being the first, non-Western nation to harness technology as an engine of miraculous economic development in the 20th century. Japan is seen as a partner; it is the only nation with strong and long-standing relationships in every Middle East capital, from Jerusalem to Tehran, including Ramallah, to Riyadh and Ankara. Japan is an ally and the United States’ closest, most important tie in the Indo-Pacific region. And, while it cherishes the democratic values of open societies, Japan has its own version of capitalism with its more communal form of competition, one that promotes the principles of inclusion and equity with the Global South.
Over the past decade, Japan’s relations with Israel have significantly deepened in economic, political and social realms. Much of the change has been fueled by the nation’s search for early-stage innovation, which it finds in abundance in the start-up nation. With Washington and Beijing locked in a complex phase of their relationship, Israel has sought to broaden its network of partners in Asia.
Japan is at the top of that list. Israel and Japan share a mutual future bound by values of open, free societies, respecting individual liberty and aspirations. Israel and Japan simultaneously view advancing technology as strategic, a core, vital means of achieving that common end. Tokyo has in parallel been impacted by a new message coming from its Arab energy partners: The time has come to collaborate with Israel. Given these factors, it makes perfect sense for Japan to invest more in Israeli ventures in the era of the Abraham Accords.
Japan has also accelerated its ties around the Persian Gulf. Prime Minister Fumio Kishida signed multiple deals for energy collaboration during his trip to Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Qatar in July. The arrangements were in part intended to secure additional energy supply in light of the war in Ukraine, but they also focused on partnerships to help catalyze the future vitality of the Gulf economy with fossil fuel exports as a smaller percentage of trade.
Investment in technology is a crucial denominator for these economies to grow in the decades to come, and Japan is increasingly seen as an ideal collaborator. Moreover, partnering with Japan does not hold the risk of diminished access or returns for those countries in the U.S. market.
At the same time that Japan has condemned the horrific Oct. 7 terrorist attack on Israel, it has also taken care to maintain its close relationship with the Palestinians, for example by taking early action to contribute humanitarian assistance in Gaza. Japan is not seen as neutral in the face of terrorism, but it is perceived to be trying to maintain a balance in its relationships amid the ensuing war. This policy reflects the longstanding attitudes of the majority of Japan’s citizenry, who do not want Japan to be seen as taking sides between the Israelis and the Palestinians. Former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe even offered to then-President Donald Trump that Japan host peace talks between Israel and the Palestinians.
The Asia pivot
When the current conflict ends, Japan, the Gulf nations, the United States, India, South Korea, Singapore, Taiwan and Israel can form the core of an Indo-Pacific-Middle East Technology Alliance (IPMETA). Nothing approaches technology’s potential to contribute to lasting peace, recovery and growth in the Middle East.
Japan’s public and private sectors have played a key role in investment in education, economic opportunity and enhanced equity around research and development and innovation in the Indo-Pacific over the past half century. IPMETA would be inclusive, facilitating access to investment, entrepreneurship and growth across the region, including for the Palestinians. Technology and its potential to lift the fortunes of nations and peoples represents the glue which binds these two most diverse and dynamic regions of the world.
There is an Asia pivot happening in the Middle East. Prior to the current conflict, other nations actively sought to fill a void created by the U.S.’ perceived withdrawal from the region. China’s brokering of normalization between Riyadh and Tehran was one potent example. With Beijing and Moscow, and now Tehran, growing ever closer, Japan is facing a stark reality. It can no longer afford not to play a role commensurate with its status as a democratic economic and technology superpower.
The risk of holding back, of not boldly seeking to shape its future, will be marginalization of critical values — and of Japan itself — that have proven essential linchpins of unprecedented prosperity and growth for nearly a century. This possibility far outweighs the risk of a more assertive stance. Japan is an ideal anchor and partner in a new, post-carbon economy in the Middle East and a critical link between the two regions. The stakes could not be higher.
Source: https://www.japantimes.co.jp/commentary/2023/12/24/japan/japan-indo-pac-middle-east-link/
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